As Donald Trump begins his second term as U.S. President, Kenya stands at a pivotal crossroads.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), set to expire on September 30, 2025, has been a linchpin of Kenya’s trade relationship with the United States, fueling growth in its apparel sector and supporting thousands of jobs.
However, Trump’s “America First” trade policies, which favour bilateral deals over multilateral frameworks like AGOA, cast doubt on the program’s renewal.
For Kenya, the stakes are immense: the loss of AGOA could disrupt its economy, while the uncertainty alone threatens investment and growth.
To thrive in this unpredictable landscape, Kenya must diversify its trade partnerships, bolster its diplomatic efforts, and prepare for alternative scenarios with strategic foresight.
AGOA’s Vital Role in Kenya’s Economy
AGOA has been a game-changer for Kenya, granting duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 6,000 products.
In 2023, Kenya exported $510 million worth of goods to the U.S. under AGOA, with apparel exports—a staggering $1.2 billion—making up the lion’s share.
This sector, which grew from $55 million in 2001 to $603 million in 2022, accounts for 67.6% of Kenya’s total exports to the U.S.
Beyond dollars, AGOA has created jobs, particularly for women, and driven industrialization, positioning Kenya as a key player in East Africa’s economic landscape.
The potential expiration of AGOA looms large. Ethiopia’s removal from the program in 2022, following human rights concerns, led to factory closures and mass job losses—a stark warning for Kenya.
Even without political missteps, the mere uncertainty of AGOA’s future is already deterring investment.
A 2023 U.S. Fashion Industry Association survey revealed that 60% of respondents hesitated to commit long-term to African markets due to AGOA’s temporary status.
For Kenya, this chilling effect could stall growth in an industry that employs thousands and generates critical foreign exchange.
Trump’s Trade Vision
Bilateralism Over Multilateralism Trump’s first term offers a glimpse into his trade philosophy. He renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA and pursued bilateral deals with Japan and the UK, signalling a disdain for multilateral frameworks like AGOA.
His “America First” agenda prioritizes U.S. interests, often through transactional, reciprocal agreements rather than broad trade programs benefiting dozens of nations.
This approach could sideline AGOA, leaving Kenya to fend for itself in a fragmented trade environment.
Trump’s unpredictability adds another layer of complexity. His tariff war with China upended global supply chains, and similar moves could alter AGOA’s terms—or end it altogether.
While Congress, not the President, holds the power to renew AGOA, Trump’s influence over Republican lawmakers and his administration’s priorities could dampen support for the program.
Kenya must brace for a future where U.S. trade policy shifts abruptly, demanding agility and adaptability.
A Proactive Strategy: Diversification and Diplomacy
To safeguard its interests, Kenya must act decisively. Diversifying trade partnerships is paramount.
While the U.S. remains a key market, Kenya can deepen ties with the European Union, China, and fast-growing economies in Asia and the Middle East.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers another avenue, enabling Kenya to tap into a continent-wide market and reduce its dependence on any single partner. By broadening its trade horizons, Kenya can cushion the blow of a potential AGOA lapse.
Diplomatic engagement is equally critical.
The U.S. Congress, which has shown bipartisan support for AGOA through bills like the 2024 proposal to extend it until 2041, is a key ally. Kenya should lobby lawmakers directly, highlighting AGOA’s mutual benefits—jobs in Kenya, and affordable goods in the U.S. Partnering with American businesses that rely on AGOA imports can amplify this message.
Additionally, Kenya’s diaspora in states like California and Texas can serve as a powerful advocacy force, pressing for AGOA’s renewal and reinforcing Kenya’s stake in U.S. policy debates.
Preparing for the Worst: Alternative Pathways
While pushing for AGOA’s continuation, Kenya must ready itself for less favourable outcomes.
A bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. could be an option, especially given Trump’s preference for such deals. However, Kenya must negotiate hard to preserve AGOA-like benefits, particularly for its apparel sector.
Any new deal must avoid the pitfalls of unequal terms that could erode Kenya’s gains. Domestically, Kenya should invest in resilience.
Upgrading infrastructure, cutting business costs, and skilling up its workforce can make its industries more competitive globally. A stronger economic foundation will help Kenya weather external shocks, whether from U.S. policy shifts or broader market trends.
Seizing the Moment
The uncertainty of AGOA under Trump’s presidency is a challenge—but also an opportunity. It’s a wake-up call for Kenya to break its overreliance on a single market and assert greater control over its economic destiny. By diversifying, engaging diplomatically, and building resilience, Kenya can mitigate risks and emerge stronger, whatever Washington decides.
As Kenyan economist James Shikwati aptly said, “Africa’s future lies in its ability to adapt and innovate in the face of global shifts.” For Kenya, this means acting now—proactively, strategically, and boldly—to shape its future in an era of uncertainty.
