Moses Kuria: 2027 presidential election will go to a run-off

Former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria now says the 2027 presidential election will be decided in a run-off.

In a statement on Sunday, September 28, Kuria predicted that no presidential candidate would secure an outright win in the first round of the election. 

Kuria stated that the 2027 polls will usher in “a new chapter” in the country’s democratic journey, declaring that “there will be no outright winner in the first round.”

He said Kenya’s multi-party democratic project, now in its 33rd year, has evolved to a point where a run-off is both likely and necessary to reflect the country's growing political diversity.

In Kenya, a presidential run-off is triggered when no candidate meets the specific constitutional thresholds required to be declared the outright winner in the first round of voting.

These thresholds are clearly outlined in Article 138(4) of the 2010 Constitution, which sets a high bar to ensure that the elected president has broad national support.

For a candidate to win the presidency outright in the first round, they must satisfy two key conditions.

First, the candidate must receive more than half of all the valid votes cast nationwide—that is, at least 50 per cent plus one vote. This ensures that the president has the support of the majority of voters across the country.

Secondly, and equally important, the candidate must also secure at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of the 47 counties. This requirement is designed to promote national cohesion and discourage regional or ethnic-based victories.

As Kenya heads toward the 2027 General Election, political activity is intensifying, and several figures are emerging as likely challengers to President William Ruto’s bid for a second term.

Among the most notable challengers is former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who has already declared his intention to run for president in 2027.

Another prominent figure likely to challenge Ruto is Kalonzo Musyoka, the Wiper Patriotic Front leader and long-serving politician.

Kalonzo has consistently positioned himself as a leading opposition figure and has confirmed his intention to be on the presidential ballot.

Veteran politician and former Azimio running mate Martha Karua is also expected to be in the race or play a significant role in shaping the opposition.

Adding to the mix is David Maraga, the former Chief Justice of Kenya and former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.

Activist and human rights defender Boniface Mwangi has also announced plans to contest the presidency.

While opposition leader Raila Odinga has not declared his intentions, speculation continues over whether he will run again, endorse a candidate, or fully align with Ruto through the current broad-based government arrangement.