Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the fastest-rising opposition presidential contender in the latest TIFA survey, recording the biggest growth in support.

In the same report, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i all registered declines.

The survey released on Friday shows President William Ruto maintaining a commanding lead in the race despite what TIFA describes as a fragmented opposition vote.

According to the findings, Ruto's support has remained steady at 24 per cent between May and June 2026, while Sifuna climbed from 10 per cent in May to 15 per cent in June, the largest gain recorded among the leading presidential hopefuls.

TIFA said Sifuna's rise has been remarkable, considering he had virtually no measurable support less than a year ago.

"From zero per cent in November 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, Sifuna is showing steady growth," the pollster said.

The survey further noted that "although opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, positioning him among the leading opposition contenders."

While Sifuna gained ground, several of his main rivals moved in the opposite direction.

Kalonzo's support declined from 25 per cent in November 2025 to 13 per cent in June 2026, while Matiang'i, who had briefly topped the poll with 32 per cent in May 2025, dropped to 14 per cent.

Gachagua also recorded a decline, slipping from a peak of nine per cent in May 2026 to seven per cent in the latest survey.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remained largely unchanged, maintaining two per cent support after peaking at eight per cent in November 2025.

Despite Ruto's steady performance, TIFA noted that a significant section of voters remains undecided, with one in every five respondents yet to settle on a preferred presidential candidate.

The survey found that 20 per cent of respondents were undecided, down from 28 per cent in August 2022 but still representing a sizeable voting bloc that could influence the outcome of the 2027 General Election.

The pollster also found varying levels of party cohesion among Kenya's main political formations.

Within ODM, Sifuna emerged as the preferred presidential candidate, with 44 per cent of ODM supporters backing him compared to 20 per cent who preferred Ruto, while 13 per cent remained undecided.

Ruto continued to dominate within UDA, enjoying 84 per cent support among party supporters.

Among Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) supporters, Gachagua led with 44 per cent, ahead of Kalonzo at 19 per cent and Matiang'i at 15 per cent.

Jubilee supporters remained firmly behind Matiang'i, with 73 per cent identifying him as their preferred presidential candidate, while Wiper supporters showed the strongest party loyalty, with nine in every 10 respondents backing Kalonzo.

 "UDA, Wiper and Jubilee supporters exhibit stronger party cohesion, with large majorities supporting their respective candidates," Tifa said adding that while ODM supporters appeared more divided despite Sifuna emerging as the party's preferred choice.

The findings come as political parties continue positioning themselves for the 2027 General Election, with succession debates intensifying across both the ruling coalition and the opposition, and as candidates seek to consolidate support ahead of the official campaign period.