OMWENGA: United opposition must stop flirting with disaster

Kenya’s politics rarely lack drama, but the current moment borders on the surreal.

 For all the noise about making President William Ruto a one term President, the simplest truth is also the most inconvenient: a divided opposition hands him an easy path to reelection. No amount of rallies, social media noise, or fiery speeches can compensate for a divided opposition.

 Every Moi orphan knows that—and in many ways we all are the victims and beneficiaries of one of the oldest tricks in politics known to man, which Moi perfected and that is, divide and rule.

 Let’s just agree on a few poignant points which I can also argue are facts as follows:

Strip away the wishful thinking and the race for the united opposition ticket comes down to two names: Fred Matiang’i and Kalonzo Musyoka. These are the only figures with the national reach, credibility and political muscle to mount a serious challenge to the incumbent.

 Anyone floating Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as a presidential contender is simply mistaken or daydreaming. Sifuna would be the first to say so.

 His Linda Mwananchi movement is potent, yes, but it is a pressure valve, not a presidential vehicle.

 On the surface, the opposition chorus is in harmony. Matiang’i, Kalonzo, Rigathi Gachagua, Sifuna, Orengo — all insist the coalition must remain united and produce a single candidate for 2027. It is the right message, and they know it. But behind the curtain, each camp is playing its own game.

 Matiang’i is positioning himself as the candidate who can change the country’s trajectory. His supporters argue he has the record, the temperament, and the toughness to take on Ruto directly.

 Kalonzo is leaning on seniority, loyalty and the belief that his long association with the opposition entitles him to the coalition’s backing.

 Both strategies are rational. Both are understandable. But if both men insist on running, the outcome is already written and lurking somewhere there is the runoff trap.

 If Matiang’i and Kalonzo both vie at the top of their respective party or coalition tickets and split the opposition vote, neither will win round one. Kenya will head to a runoff. In that second round, Ruto will be either first or second — either way, he will be on the ballot for the runoff.

The third place finisher will then have a choice to either back Ruto in the run-off, or to back the very person they refused to back before the election. You can see why it would be an easy decision for at least one them to cut a deal with Ruto and hand him the presidency in round two.

 This is not prophecy. It is math.

 And if the election goes to a runoff, Ruto will move mountains — by intimidation, pressure, raw power and every known dirty politics — to ensure he is sworn in again. The Supreme Court challenge that follows will end the way such challenges usually do: with a version of “hot air.”

 Then there is Gachagua, who’s bent on dictating who the united opposition’s choice of flagbearer should be. But the idea that he can play kingmaker is unrealistic. What he may succeed in doing, however, is far more destabilising: forcing a compromise candidate who satisfies his interests but alienates the majority of voters who would prefer a different candidate who satisfies the country’s needs, not the desires of an individual.

 If that happens, the backlash will be swift. Some voters will stay home. Others will vote for Ruto just to spite Gachagua. Kenya has seen this kind of political self sabotage before.

 The united opposition still has a path out of this mess — but the window is closing.

Its leaders must convene a national conference and agree on a fair, transparent, professionally managed process for selecting the flagbearer. Not backroom deals, tribal horse trading or extortion.

 A real process that is open, so no camp feels cheated; data-driven, using credible polling and independent analysis, and final, with all parties committing to support the winner and his running mate.

 If this happens, the united opposition can avoid the fragmentation that would otherwise hand Ruto a second term on a silver platter.

It’s that simple.