Ruto maintains lead as Sifuna overtakes Kalonzo in 2027 State House race

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has overtaken Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as the opposition's most preferred presidential contender, according to the latest Trends and Insights for Africa survey.

The poll also shows President William Ruto maintains the lead in the race for State House, but still fall short of the 50 per cent plus one threshold to win in the first round of voting.

The poll, released on Friday, shows Sifuna recording the fastest growth among opposition politicians who have yet to agree on a single presidential candidate for the 2027 polls.

The latest survey by the Tom Wolf-led team shows Ruto maintained his support at 24 per cent between May and June 2026, remaining the country's most preferred presidential candidate.

Sifuna climbed from 10 per cent in May to 15 per cent in June, overtaking Kalonzo, whose support dropped to 13 from 19 per cent.

“Although opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, positioning him among the leading opposition contender” the pollster says.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i ranked third among opposition figures, with his popularity stagnating at 14 per cent.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua slipped from nine per cent in May to seven per cent, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remained at two per cent.

TIFA said Sifuna's rise has been remarkable, considering he had virtually no measurable support when it first tracked the post-Raila Odinga political landscape.

“From zero per cent in November 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, Sifuna is showing steady growth," the pollster said.

The poll was conducted between June 13 and June 22 through face-to-face household interviews involving 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties.

It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points.

The findings highlight shifting political fortunes within the opposition.

Kalonzo's support has almost halved since November 2025, falling from 25 per cent to 13.

Matiang'i, who briefly led the field after Raila's death, also lost ground, while Gachagua's numbers dipped amid uncertainty over his legal challenge against his impeachment.

Despite Sifuna's gains, the survey concludes that Ruto continues to benefit from a divided opposition.

TIFA argues that while Ruto commands only about a quarter of Kenyans' support nationally, none of his rivals has built sufficient national appeal beyond their traditional regional strongholds.

"While Ruto is currently the most popular potential presidential candidate, his standing at only one-quarter of Kenyans suggests the opposition has considerable opportunity in next year's election," the report states.

The support enjoyed by opposition leaders remains heavily concentrated in their respective regions, making it difficult for any single candidate to challenge the President without a united coalition.

The survey also examined perceptions of who would be best placed to defeat Ruto.

Kenyans were almost evenly divided, with 18 per cent naming Sifuna and another 18 per cent choosing Matiang'i as the strongest challenger.

Kalonzo followed at 16 per cent, while Gachagua received 14 per cent backing.

The findings underline the difficult negotiations expected within the opposition as leaders seek to agree on a single presidential flag bearer.

The survey also piles fresh pressure on Gachagua to shelve his presidential ambitions and instead back a consensus candidate.

Among respondents opposed to Ruto's re-election, 62 per cent said Gachagua should support another opposition leader rather than insist on leading the coalition himself.

Specifically, 33 per cent said the opposition would have its best chance of victory if Gachagua is cleared to contest but chooses to support another candidate, while 29 per cent held the same view even if he is barred from contesting because of his impeachment case.

“The findings indicate that anti-Ruto voters are primarily focused on maximising the opposition's chances of victory, regardless of who heads the coalition,” the pollster states.

Only 14 per cent believed Gachagua should become the opposition's presidential flag bearer, while five per cent said Ruto cannot be defeated regardless of the opposition's strategy.

The findings come just days after Gachagua publicly declared he was prepared to support another opposition candidate if that offered the best chance of defeating Ruto.

"I have no problem supporting another candidate if that is what it takes to remove Ruto," Gachagua said during an interview on KTN on Wednesday.

TIFA said uncertainty surrounding Gachagua's pending impeachment case continues to shape opposition calculations ahead of next year's election.

"More uncertainties about the contours of next year's election are related to the yet-to-be-finalised legal challenge that Gachagua has made to his impeachment and removal from office," the report says.

The poll further examined support within individual political parties.

Among ODM supporters, Sifuna emerged as the overwhelming favourite for president, attracting 44 per cent support.

Two-thirds of ODM supporters are backing Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi movemnt with Oburu Oginga-led Linda Ground enjoying only 20 per cent support.

“ODM supporters are consolidating behind the Linda Mwananchi position, with support increasing while the alternative Linda Ground position continues to lose ground,” the poll states.

Ruto ranked second among ODM supporters with 20 per cent, while Matiang'i attracted nine per cent.

Babu Owino and Kalonzo each received four per cent, with former Chief Justice David Maraga polling two per cent.

Within UDA, Ruto enjoys overwhelming loyalty, with 84 per cent of party supporters backing his re-election bid.

Jubilee supporters were equally united behind Matiang'i, with 73 per cent identifying him as their preferred presidential candidate, while Wiper recorded the strongest internal cohesion of all parties surveyed, with 90 per cent of its supporters backing Kalonzo.

Supporters of Gachagua's DCP were more divided with only 44 per cent backing him to run for State House. Some 19 per cent of DCP supporters backed Kalonzo's candidature while 15 per cent supported Matiang'i.

"The survey indicates that UDA supporters remain highly consolidated behind Ruto, while Jubilee supporters have largely rallied behind Matiang'i," TIFA said.

TIFA cautioned that the findings represent public opinion during the survey period and could shift as political realignments continue ahead of the 2027 general election.