NASSIR: Allow more flights so Mombasa and Coast can take off economically

For decades, Kenya has invested heavily in building a globally competitive tourism destination. We have world-class beaches, wildlife, heritage, hospitality infrastructure and a workforce with generations of experience in the tourism economy.

Yet one of our greatest tourism assets — the Kenyan Coast — continues to operate below its potential.

The problem is no longer the attractiveness of our destination. The problem is access.

An economic impact assessment commissioned by the Mombasa Investment Corporation, a corporate agency of the county, presents compelling evidence of the need for air access.

It says in a report that expanding direct international air access to Moi International Airport could unlock billions of shillings in additional economic activity, create tens of thousands of jobs and significantly increase government revenues.

The numbers deserve national attention.

Last year, the airport received 235,184 international arrivals, representing 9.2 per cent of Kenya’s 2.55 million international arrivals. This was an encouraging 14.7 per cent increase from 2024.

But growth should not disguise the scale of the opportunity we are leaving on the table.

The assessment models the impact of just four additional international flights per week, operating for 36 weeks annually at a 78 per cent load factor. The result would be about 31,450 additional visitors every year.

At an estimated average direct expenditure of $1,750 per visitor and applying a 1.7 tourism GDP multiplier, those four flights could generate about Sh12.1 billion in additional annual economic output, support more than 17,000 jobs and generate about Sh1.7 billion in additional tax revenues.

Seven additional weekly flights could deliver about 55,000 additional visitors, Sh21.1 billion in annual GDP impact, more than 30,000 jobs and about Sh3 billion in tax revenues.

These are not insignificant numbers.

They demonstrate that air access is not simply an aviation issue. It is an economic development policy.

Every additional aircraft landing at Moi International Airport creates demand across an extensive value chain. Visitors require hotel rooms, food, taxis, tuk-tuks, tour operators, entertainment, agricultural produce, fish, crafts, financial services and professional services.

Tourism expenditure circulates through communities.

A hotel room occupied in Nyali creates demand for farmers supplying fresh produce. A visitor travelling to Fort Jesus creates income for guides and transport operators. A conference delegate extending a business trip creates additional demand for restaurants, entertainment and retail.

This is why expanding international connectivity must be understood as an employment strategy, an SME development strategy and a national revenue strategy.

The opportunity extends beyond Mombasa.

Visitors arriving through Moi International Airport travel to Diani in Kwale, Watamu and Malindi in Kilifi, our national parks and other destinations across Kenya. Mombasa is not asking for a policy that benefits one county. We are advocating for a gateway that strengthens an entire regional and national economy.

The evidence from competing destinations is instructive.

Morocco welcomed 19.8 million tourists last year after aggressively expanding international connectivity across multiple airports. Egypt received about 19 million visitors while allowing international carriers direct access to resort destinations such as Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada.

South Africa demonstrates that strong regional gateways can coexist successfully with a dominant national hub. Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg all receive direct international services.

Closer to home, Zanzibar has used a more permissive approach to international charters and scheduled services to expand its tourism market.

Kenya must ask itself a simple question: why should our Coast compete globally with one hand tied behind its back?

Our position is not an argument against Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. Neither is it an argument against Kenya Airways.

That would be a false choice.

Countries with successful tourism economies understand that national hubs and regional gateways complement each other.

More passengers arriving directly in Mombasa create additional domestic and regional travel opportunities. They increase demand for connecting services, expand the overall aviation market and strengthen Kenya’s attractiveness as a destination.

The objective must be to grow the market rather than protect the distribution of an economy that remains smaller than its potential.

Kenya has set an ambitious target of attracting 5.5 million international visitors by 2028. We will not achieve that ambition through marketing campaigns alone.

We must make it easier for tourists to reach our destinations.

The assessment commissioned by the Mombasa Investment Corporation proposes an aspirational target of one million annual international visitors to the Coast within three to five years.

At that scale, the regional tourism economy could generate about $1.75 billion in direct visitor expenditure and an estimated $3 billion — about Sh384 billion — in annual GDP impact.

The modelling further estimates that about 550,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs and more than Sh50 billion in annual tax revenues at this level of tourism activity.

Even allowing for the need to continuously refine economic modelling with primary data, the direction of the evidence is unmistakable: connectivity creates growth.

The policy response should therefore be equally clear.

Kenya should establish a transparent and time-bound process for approving international services into Moi International Airport, adopt a more facilitative framework for charter and scheduled carriers. It should actively pursue underserved source markets in Europe, the Gulf and Africa.

Kenya should also establish a joint national-county air access development platform bringing together government, regulators, airports, airlines, tourism agencies and the private sector.

We must also recognise the emerging opportunity presented by Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions.

Mice already accounts for about 27 per cent of Kenya’s international tourist arrivals. Mombasa has the accommodation capacity, heritage, climate and leisure offering required to compete for this market.

Our ambition to develop international convention infrastructure must therefore be accompanied by international connectivity. Conference facilities without adequate air access will never achieve their full economic potential.

Mombasa county is prepared to play its part.

Through the Mombasa Investment Corporation, we will work with investors, airlines, tourism operators and neighbouring counties to develop commercially viable routes, strengthen destination marketing and create an investment environment that supports new hotels, convention facilities, entertainment, the blue economy and tourism-related enterprises.

But aviation policy remains fundamentally a national responsibility.

We therefore call upon the national government, aviation regulators and industry stakeholders to work with us in unlocking Moi International Airport.

This is not a demand for preferential treatment.

It is a case for rational economic policy.

Four additional flights a week could support more than 17,000 jobs.

Seven could support more than 30,000.

One million visitors could transform the economic trajectory of the entire Coast region.

The question before us is no longer whether Mombasa has the potential.

The evidence demonstrates that it does.

The question is whether we have the courage to make the policy decisions necessary to unlock it.

The writer is Mombasa governor