Eat now, pay later: Kenya’s Sh97.4 billion obesity bill

Study adds weight to calls for sugar taxes and food warning labels as obesity threatens economy and public health.

by JOHN MUCHANGI

Health07 March 2025 - 11:20

In Summary

Kenya in 2013 signed the Global Action Plan target to halt the rise (0 per cent increase) of overweight and obesity by 2025.

Kenya could save about Sh97.4 billion (US$755 million) in healthcare costs if it successfully halts the rise in overweight and obesity for the next 20 years, a new modelling study suggests.

This is the first study to assess the gains and healthcare cost savings for Kenya if it controls overweight and obesity in adults.

The modelling was done by Dr Mary Wanjau of the University of Nairobi, and colleagues from Griffith University of Australia, and Clinical Research Education Networking and Consultancy, Cameroon.

“This savings (Sh97.4 billion) is equivalent to 16 per cent of Kenya’s annual healthcare expenditure or one per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP),” the authors said.

The savings are nine times the cost of building the KU Referral Hospital, which cost Kenya Sh10 billion.

The study adds weight to campaigns for initiatives that curb obesity, such as mandatory nutritional warning labels on some foods, and higher taxes on sugary beverages.

Dr Wanjau and colleagues modelled 37 diseases associated with high BMI to assess the health and economic impact of curbing obesity.

Their paper, “Potential health and economic impact of achieving Kenya’s overweight and obesity reduction target: a modelling study”, is published in the BMC Public Health Journal.

“If BMI distributions stabilised in 2025, an estimated 6.8 million health-adjusted life years (HALYs) would be saved over the lifetime of the 2019 Kenyan population,” they said, referring to the 2019 national census figures.

Haly measures both years of life lost to early death and years lived with disability or illness.

About 27 per cent of the Kenya adult population (about 6.8 million people) is classified as overweight or obese.

The authors said rapid urbanisation, sedentary lifestyles, and shifts in dietary habits, such as consuming more processed foods high in sugar and fat, have fueled this public health crisis.

“People eat progressively less locally produced indigenous foods rich in fiber and low in fat, and more of products high in saturated fats and sugar,” they explained.

Kenya in 2013 signed the Global Action Plan target to halt the rise (0 per cent increase) of overweight and obesity by 2025.

The authors estimate that if the country made good this commitment, it could prevent 537,052 cases of musculoskeletal diseases by 2044; 466,030 cases of type 2 diabetes; and 301,729 cases of cardiovascular diseases.

“In the year 2044, the largest proportional reduction in disease prevalent cases would be seen in type 2 diabetes followed by musculoskeletal diseases and cardiovascular diseases,” they said.

Additionally, approximately 66,135 deaths could be avoided by 2044. The greatest reductions in deaths would be linked to cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and certain cancers.

The financial benefits extend beyond healthcare savings.

“By 2044, the total productivity gain resulting from a reduction in high BMI-related mortality and morbidity (combined) was US$5.8 billion (Sh748.2 billion),” the researchers noted.

These productivity gains are nearly eight times higher than the direct healthcare cost savings.

The calculations are based on the 2020 WHO Global Health Expenditure Database that estimated the total healthcare costs for Kenya as US$4.5 billion in 2018.

They health gains would be higher in females than males.

“This is largely due to the baseline distribution of overweight and obesity where a greater percentage of women have overweight or obesity in Kenya,” Dr Wanjau and colleagues said.

They said even these gains are an underestimate.

The findings strongly support the need for national policies aimed at preventing further increases in overweight and obesity.

“These findings support the case for government action to prevent further increases in overweight and obesity,” the study said.

Experts suggest that policies such as a sugar tax, stricter food labeling requirements, and urban planning measures to encourage physical activity could help curb the obesity epidemic. Internationally, similar measures have shown success in reducing obesity rates and related healthcare costs.