Kenya listed among 22 countries most at risk as powerful El Niño develops

A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warns that millions of people could face threats to their food supplies and livelihoods unless governments and aid agencies act early.

The report says Kenya is among countries facing a high risk of climate-related shocks linked to El Niño between late 2026 and early 2027.

"An El Nino is forming, and millions of food-insecure people are in its path. Strong El Nino conditions are developing, threatening food security, agriculture and livelihoods across multiple regions into 2027," the report says.

"This El Nino is expected to bring significantly drier conditions to Southern Africa, Central America, parts of Asia and the Pacific, and Eastern Africa, while increasing the likelihood of floods and storms in the Horn of Africa and parts of Asia."

Kenya appears on a list of priority countries identified by FAO and WFP for urgent support and preparedness efforts before the worst effects are felt.

The agencies selected the countries based on historical El Nino weather patterns, climate forecasts, food insecurity levels, agricultural calendars and their readiness to respond.

The report says Kenya is among high-risk countries where the two UN agencies are "strengthening readiness efforts and supporting the development or refinement of anticipatory action plans considering forecast El Nino risks."

The agencies are asking donors to provide $202 million (Sh26 billion) to help vulnerable communities prepare before disasters strike. They say acting early can save lives, protect crops and reduce future humanitarian costs.

"For the first time, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) are issuing a joint, forward-looking appeal for anticipatory action at scale," the report says.

"The two agencies are positioned to immediately support 1.2 million people at risk from the predicted El Nino impacts. An additional USD 167 million (Sh21.6 billion) would extend anticipatory assistance to 7.6 million more."

For Kenya and other countries in Eastern Africa, the report warns that the biggest threat is likely to be unusually heavy rainfall and flooding.

It notes that El Nino affects different parts of Eastern Africa in different ways. While some areas may experience reduced rainfall, countries in the Horn of Africa, including Kenya, face a greater risk of floods.

"By contrast, between October and December, in the bimodal areas of the Horn of Africa, including Somalia, Kenya, Uganda and eastern Ethiopia, El Nino is linked to an increased risk of above-average rainfall and flooding," the report says.

"Global models already indicate a high probability of wetter-than-normal conditions during this season."

Flooding could damage farms, destroy infrastructure, spread livestock diseases and force families to leave their homes.

Among the key risks identified for Eastern Africa are "crop losses and damage to agricultural infrastructure", "livestock disease outbreaks, reduced milk production and animal losses", and "population displacement and disruption of livelihoods."

The agencies say countries should begin preparations immediately because there is still time to reduce the impact of the expected weather shocks.

Recommended actions include sending early warnings to communities, providing cash support to vulnerable households, distributing seeds and farm inputs, improving water storage, vaccinating livestock and putting flood protection measures in place.

The report argues that investing before a crisis occurs is far cheaper than responding after people have already lost crops, animals and incomes.

"Evidence shows that every USD 1 invested in anticipatory action can generate up to USD 7 in avoided humanitarian losses," the report says.

"In the context of rapidly shrinking global aid budgets, these savings are critical and making anticipatory action not only cost-effective, but essential to maximising the impact of limited resources."

The agencies point to recent El Niño events as evidence of the growing danger. During the 2015-2016 El Niño, more than 60 million people were affected worldwide. The more recent 2023-2024 event caused severe droughts and food shortages in several regions.

"The world enters this El Niño cycle at a time of already elevated humanitarian needs," the report says.

"In many vulnerable countries, rural households have limited capacity to absorb another major climate shock after successive years of droughts, floods, cyclones and high food prices."

FAO and WFP say the coming months will be critical. They warn that funding and action must come quickly if vulnerable communities are to be protected before the expected floods and other weather-related shocks begin to hit.

 Instant analysis

The FAO and WFP warning underscores the growing need for Kenya to shift from reactive disaster response to proactive climate preparedness. With extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense, early action is increasingly critical to safeguarding food production, protecting livelihoods and reducing humanitarian costs. The report also highlights the vulnerability of agriculture-dependent economies to climate shocks, particularly after successive years of drought and flooding. For Kenya, timely investment in early warning systems, flood mitigation, climate-smart agriculture and social protection could help minimise losses and strengthen resilience before the anticipated El Niño impacts materialise.