Inside Sifuna, Orengo's game plan: Will they trigger a 1992-style opposition split?

A growing political debate is emerging around the future of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo, as the country's opposition realigns ahead of the 2027 general election.

The two ODM leaders have increasingly positioned themselves as the loudest critics of the broad-based arrangement, sparking speculation on whether they are laying the groundwork for an alternative political vehicle outside ODM.

Political observers say the key question is whether Linda Mwananchi will ultimately settle behind a single opposition candidate or inadvertently recreate the divisions that handed former President Daniel arap Moi victory in the 1992 and 1997 elections.

In 1992, opposition heavyweights Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Kenneth Matiba and Mwai Kibaki split the anti-Kanu vote, allowing Moi to retain power despite the combined opposition tally surpassing his vote share.

A similar scenario played out five years later when opposition forces again failed to unite.

Analysts argue that the lesson remains relevant as former DCP boss Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DP’s Justin Muturi, PLP’s Martha Karua and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i all eye the presidency.

It is for this reason that analysts have consistently maintained that the opposition must rally behind a single presidential candidate if it hopes to mount a credible challenge against President William Ruto.

Drawing lessons from Kenya's political history, they argue that a fragmented opposition would only divide votes and improve Ruto's chances of securing a second term.

“A fragmented opposition means William would easily jog to the finishing line like Usain Bolt,” political analyst Kidi Mwaga told the Star.

Political analyst Joseph Mutua said Sifuna’s growing popularity and national profile could make him a valuable asset to a united opposition, but they could also encourage an independent bid should he conclude that his ambitions are better served outside a coalition arrangement.

Mutua explained that the strategic choice facing Sifuna could have significant implications for the opposition's chances of success.

“If he throws his weight behind a consensus candidate, he could help consolidate support and strengthen efforts to present a united front against the ruling establishment,” he stated.

Mutua, however, pointed out that if Sifuna decides to pursue his own candidacy or back a separate political formation, he could attract a substantial segment of voters who identify with his message and style of politics.

“While such a move could enhance his personal political standing, it could also contribute to the fragmentation of opposition support,” he added.

So far, all the opposition chiefs have maintained that Kenya requires a strong opposition movement but have carefully avoided publicly endorsing any of the leading presidential hopefuls.

DAP-K boss Eugine Wamalwa on Tuesday defended the move to delay the decision on the flagbearer, terming it a strategy.

“It is strategic not to say who will be the presidential candidate now. We cannot declare that prematurely,”  Wamalwa said

Speaking to the Star, Vihiga senator Godfrey Osotsi said Linda Mwananchi is currently focused on nationwide reach and popularising their movement before making decision on how to approach the 2027 polls.

Osotsi, who doubles as the Linda Mwananchi treasurer, said the team is looking at September for its major announcement on the way forward.

“Currently, we want to traverse the country and popularise our movement. There will be a major rally in Nairobi in September where we will tell the nation the way forward,” Osotsi said.

Sifuna proposed a two-horse race model in the next general election, arguing that a simplified ballot would sharpen the contest and give voters a clearer choice.

“Kenyans are suffering and have told us that they want fresh leadership. What are we supposed to do? We are supposed to give Kenyans hope as a political leadership and send home the current government, even if it means that the rest of us unite,” he said.

“We don’t want a ballot paper that has many names to tire Kenyans. We only need two names, the incumbent and one from the opposition. That will follow deep talks,” he added.

Sifuna emphasised that such a coalition would not be rushed, noting that structured, face-to-face negotiations among opposition leaders would be necessary to align on policy direction and leadership.

“We shall talk face to face and ask each other what the intentions and plans for the country are,” he said.

Other opposition bigwigs – Gachagua, Kalonzo, Wamalwa, Muturi and Karua – have also backed calls for a single candidate to face off with Ruto.

Their dilemma, however, is compounded by ODM's position.

While the party remains one of the country's strongest political machines, cooperation with Ruto has effectively shut the door for Sifuna and Orengo using ODM as a platform for anti-government mobilisation.

That leaves the two facing difficult choices should they decide to pursue a different political path.

Among the options being discussed are joining an existing party aligned to the emerging anti-Ruto coalition or forming a new movement bringing together disgruntled ODM members.

However, any breakaway carries significant risks.

For Sifuna, perhaps the biggest personal question concerns his Senate seat. He was elected on the ODM ticket and remains the deputy Minority Whip despite his fallout with the mainstream team led by Oburu Oginga.

A formal fallout with ODM could trigger legal and political battles over his influential position in the Senate.

Even before officially disengaging from the Orange party, there is a silent push to remove him as the deputy Minority Whip.

“There is a plot in the works to eject him as the Deputy Minority Whip,” Osotsi confirmed.

Political analyst Herman Manyora, however, warns ODM against removing Edwin Sifuna as Senate Deputy Minority Whip, arguing that such a move would only boost Sifuna's popularity.

“The long and short of it all, they are gaining nothing, and instead Sifuna is gaining so much,” he said.

Sharing similar sentiments, Jubilee Party deputy organising secretary Pauline Njoroge says kicking him out as secretary general has made him even more popular because people are following him

Orengo, on the other hand, is also at a big risk eyeing his final term in 2027 as Siaya governor; this does not give him freedom to take political risks without worrying about re-election.

Observers say both Orengo and Sifuna continue to walk a political tightrope, remaining inside ODM while increasingly sounding like leaders of an opposition movement outside it.

Whether that path leads them to Kalonzo, Matiang'i, Gachagua or an entirely different political formation could determine whether the opposition presents a united front in 2027 or repeats the mistakes that kept Moi in power more than three decades ago.