The anticipated exit of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna from ODM could trigger the biggest wave of defections since the party entered its post-Raila Odinga transition.
At least 10 Members of Parliament allied to Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi movement are reportedly prepared to quit ODM alongside him once a new political vehicle is unveiled.
Some of the leaders ready to walk out with Sifuna include Siaya Governor James Orengo, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, his Vihiga counterpart Godfrey Osotsi and MPs Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South), Obadiah Barongo (Bomachoge Borabu) and Caroli Omondi (Suba South).
Others are Oundo Midenyo (Funyula), Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba) and Patrick Osero (Borabu).
Osotsi told the Star that support for the movement extends far beyond the leaders who have publicly associated with it. He revealed that several elected leaders are quietly waiting for the right moment to make their move.
"There is overwhelming support from leaders across the country, including people in other parties, serving Members of Parliament, governors and senators," Osotsi said.
"They are engaging with us, talking to us and a significant number are even supporting our activities as they wait for the appropriate time to join us."
He added that the new political outfit is expected to attract leaders from across the political divide.
"When the party is launched, it is going to attract many leaders. Some proponents of the second term are already talking to us and even supporting some of our activities financially," he said.
University don Prof Gitile Naituli agrees.
"There will be more defections, especially from Western, because Sifuna has now built a profile that will enable him to influence elections in Western Kenya and indeed across the country," Naituli said in a phone interview.
"After those defections, ODM will be a shell. Party leader Oburu Oginga will be left with a shell, basically, but not a party."
Sources familiar with the plans say the Sifuna team has resolved to take over an existing political party rather than register a new one, arguing that the timelines before the 2027 General Election make establishing and fully registering a fresh party impractical.
"We will definitely get an existing party. Look at the protracted guidelines for registering a new party. It can take no less than two years," a highly placed source in the movement told the Star.
However, Osotsi said the movement still has sufficient time to form a new political party if it chooses that route.
"I think we have enough time to establish a new party and undertake all the necessary activities, including nationwide rallies. There is no hurry about when to launch the party," he said.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, who has also announced plans to leave DAP-K, said the emerging political formation would seek to consolidate support in Western Kenya while maintaining a national appeal.
"We shall come up with a new party that will unite Western Kenya while embracing a national outlook," Natembeya said.
If the planned exit materialises, it would significantly reduce ODM's parliamentary numbers while handing Oburu his biggest political challenge since taking over the Orange party following Raila’s death last year.
For months, Sifuna has steadily transformed Linda Mwananchi from what initially appeared to be a pressure group into a structured political movement positioning itself as the face of a rejuvenated opposition determined to challenge President William Ruto in 2027.
What began as routine political mobilisation has evolved into an organised network complete with regional rallies, grassroots coordinators and an expanding list of elected leaders who increasingly identify with the movement.
The movement has particularly resonated with younger leaders opposed to the continued cooperation with President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza administration.
While ODM has defended its working relationship with the government as being in the national interest, critics within the party argue the arrangement has effectively swallowed the country's biggest opposition party.
The rift between Sifuna and the ODM establishment has been building for months.
Early signs emerged during the party's post-Raila transition. Differences widened over the implementation of the UDA-ODM cooperation framework and the party's position on President Ruto's 2027 re-election bid.
Sifuna and his allies have consistently argued that ODM should remain an uncompromising opposition party capable of holding the government to account.
The rival camp, led by Oburu, has maintained that constructive engagement with the Kenya Kwanza administration gives ODM greater influence in governance while preserving its relevance in national politics.
Tensions escalated after Sifuna and his allies intensified Linda Mwananchi rallies across the country, often delivering messages that sharply contradicted the official party position.
Attempts to discipline the Nairobi Senator only widened the divide.
Rather than retreat, Sifuna expanded his political outreach, declaring would unveil his 2027 political direction this month while strongly hinting that he would be on the presidential ballot.
His allies have since openly endorsed him as their preferred presidential candidate, effectively signalling their political future lies outside ODM.
Beyond the immediate loss of legislators, ODM risks losing youthful leaders who have been instrumental in expanding the party's urban and grassroots support.
Should the anticipated defections occur, Oburu is likely to face renewed scrutiny over his ability to hold together the broad coalition that has sustained ODM for nearly two decades.
Political analysts argue that a successful Sifuna-led breakaway could encourage other dissatisfied leaders who have remained in the party while monitoring the standoff between the two camps.
"The people who may stick with Oburu will be the ones already eating in government. Those outside government will join Linda Mwananchi. So ODM will be diminished. It will become a very small party, unfortunately," Naituli argued.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
If Sifuna succeeds in building a credible alternative capable of attracting elected leaders and grassroots support, Oburu's leadership will come under sustained pressure.
Linda Mwananchi bigwigs led by Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna addressing a rally in a past rally
